Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

Open accessRecently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics

Making Sense of Non-Individuals in Quantum Mechanics

In this work, we focus on a very specific case study: assuming that quantum theories deal with “particles” of some kind (point particles in orthodox non-relativistic quantum mechanics, field excitations in quantum field theories), what kind of entity can such particles be? One possible answer, the one we shall examine here, is that they are not the usual kind of object found in daily life: individuals. Rather, we follow a suggestion by Erwin Schrödinger, according to which quantum mechanics poses a revolutionary kind of entity: non-individuals. While physics, as a scientific field, is not concerned with whether entities posited by a specific physical theory are individuals or not, answering this question is part of the quest for a better understanding of physical reality. Here lies, in large measure, the relevance of ontology

Men's help-seeking in the first year after diagnosis of localised prostate cancer.

This study describes sources of support utilised by men with localised prostate cancer in the first year after diagnosis and examines characteristics associated with help-seeking for men with unmet needs. A cross-sectional survey of 331 patients from a population-based sample who were in the first year after diagnosis (M = 9.6, SD = 1.9) was conducted to assess sources of support, unmet supportive care needs, domain-specific quality of life and psychological distress. Overall, 82% of men reported unmet supportive care needs. The top five needs were sexuality (58%); prostate cancer-specific (57%); psychological (47%); physical and daily living (41%); and health system and information (31%). Professional support was most often sought from doctors (51%). Across most domains, men who were older (Ps ≤ 0.03), less well educated (Ps ≤ 0.04) and more depressed (Ps ≤ 0.05) were less likely to seek help for unmet needs. Greater sexual help-seeking was related to better sexual function (P = 0.03), higher education (P ≤ 0.03) and less depression (P = 0.05). Unmet supportive care needs are highly prevalent after localised prostate cancer diagnosis with older age, lower education and higher depression apparent barriers to help-seeking. Interventions that link across medicine, nursing and community based peer support may be an accessible approach to meeting these needs. Clinical Trial Registry: Trial Registration: ACTRN12611000392965

Avoidance, biomass and survival response of soil dwelling (endogeic) earthworms to OECD artificial soil: potential implications for earthworm ecotoxicology

Soil dwelling earthworms are now adopted more widely in ecotoxicology, so it is vital to establish if standardised test parameters remain applicable. The main aim of this study was to determine the influence of OECD artificial soil on selected soil-dwelling, endogeic earthworm species. In an initial experiment, biomass change in mature Allolobophora chlorotica was recorded in Standard OECD Artificial Soil (AS) and also in Kettering Loam (KL). In a second experiment, avoidance behaviour was recorded in a linear gradient with varying proportions of AS and KL (100% AS, 75% AS + 25% KL, 50% KS + 50% KL, 25% AS + 75% KL, 100% KL) with either A. chlorotica or Octolasion cyaneum. Results showed a significant decrease in A. chlorotica biomass in AS relative to KL, and in the linear gradient, both earthworm species preferentially occupied sections containing higher proportions of KL over AS. Soil texture and specifically % composition and particle size of sand are proposed as key factors that influenced observed results. This research suggests that more suitable substrates are required for ecotoxicology tests with soil dwelling earthworms

Nitrogênio e infestação da broca-do-colmo em arroz irrigado

The effect of Nitrogen fertilization on the infestation level of D. saccharalis in flooded rice was observed in two different field experiments. In one of them, plants that received basal and split application of Nitrogen (total of 100 kg N/ha) were more infested by stem borer than plants that received only basal application (50 kg N/ha). In the other experiment, under various Nitrogen fertilization levels (30, 60, 90, 120, 150 and 180 kg/ha). Nitrogen rates and stem borer infestation were highly correlated (R = 0,975**).A influência da adubação nitrogenada sobre o nível de infestação de Diatraea saccharalis, em arroz irrigado, foi avaliada através de dois experimentos. Em um deles foi observado que as plantas que receberam o elemento, aplicado na base e em cobertura (total de 100 kg de N/ha), foram mais danificadas pela broca de que as que receberam somente aplicação basal (50 kg de N/ha). Em outro experimento, sobre os efeitos de doses de N (30, 60, 90, 120, 150 e 180 kg/ha) em arroz, o nível de dano causado pela broca foi altamente correlacionado (R = 0,975**) com a dose do elemento a que as plantas foram submetidas